China’s Innovation Landscape 2030

The objective of the report was to investigate changes in China’s innovation landscape and outline different possible trajectories for innovation in China toward 2030. In doing so, it attempts to find perspectives that separates the signal from the noise and sort out which of today’s events matter in the long run. Many of today’s leading innovators may not be around in 10 years and topics that seem significant now may soon be forgotten. Our approach is therefore to study change on a more structural level, where things move more slowly. These innovation structures are not directly observable, but can be studied indirectly through their manifestations in the form of new startups, business models, R&D projects, policy priorities, acquisitions, cultural phenomena, and other observable events. In order to understand plausible future developments, we begin by studying patterns of change emerging from China’s past and present innovation related experience.

The study specifically seeks an understanding of changes in three domains:

• Government policy and how it attempts to guide China’s innovation trajectory

• Current industrial capabilities and the evolution over time of knowledge ecosystems

• The impact on innovation of cultural, creative, and consumer trends

  The research team has utilised a combination of foresight methodologies such as desk-study analysis, Delphi, media scanning, interviews, exploratory workshops, and patent/paper analysis, in order to identify critical drivers and trends, and draw plausible scenarios for China in 2030.

  The research is performed by KAIROS FUTURE, PRAXI Network/ FORTH, and Phemonoe Lab, in the context of the DRAGON-STAR Plus project which is funded by the European Commission under the HORIZON 2020 program.

Published: 2017