Reference case

Swedish Forest Society Foundation

Scenario analysis for Habitat Banking 2030

Kairos Future has, together with Enetjärn Nature and with support from the Swedish Forest Society Foundation, developed a future study that examines possible futures - scenarios - for habitat banking by 2030. Habitat banking is a market-based system in which landowners and other stakeholders are able to restore the ecological habitat in purpose to reprocess and sell offset credits to developers who need to offset their impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

In a process with the participation of experts from different parts of Swedish society, we have identified a number of trends and uncertainties affecting future opportunities for habitat banking. Based on the two strategic uncertainties "focus on biodiversity" (will biodiversity be a priority in Sweden 2030?) and "flexibility in the systems of ecological compensation" (how controlled or flexible you can work with ecological compensation in Sweden in 2030?), we have developed four scenarios describing different and possible futures.

With these scenarios as a starting point, we form a good basis for the continued strategic dialogue on ecological compensation and development of habitat banking in Sweden 2030.

Our conclusions are that there are a number of key factors to create a market for the compensation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. These keys can be summarized thus:

  • Develop a demand by increased requirements for compensation;
  • Clear framework with great consistency;
  • Flexibility in the execution;
  • Legal certainty and predictability;
  • High interest for biodiversity.

Our purpose of this report is to initiate a discussion between politicians, authorities, business and non-profit organizations about the opportunities and challenges of habitat banking systems in Sweden 2030.

Read about the project at the Swedish Forest Society Foundation's website here (in swedish) and find out more about Enetjärn Natur here (in swedish). You can also  read more about how we work with scenario analysis here. 

Subjects: Energy & Environment Scenarios, Trends & Megatrends

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