Reference case

Skåne uses scenario planning to navigate in an uncertain world

Thinking long-term in a rapidly changing world – a challenge for many destinations.

Thinking long-term in a rapidly changing world is one of the major challenges for many destinations today. For example, how will climate anxiety develop? Will travel volumes continue to increase? And what happens if virtual reality becomes a competitor to physical experiences? Tourism in Skåne has long worked successfully with systematic business environment analysis. Before the strategy work towards 2030, there was a need to investigate potential future scenarios for tourism in Skåne. Kairos Future was commissioned to develop a scenario analysis based on the region's starting point and the trends and uncertainties in the outside world that affect the destination in the future.

"The future is currently uncertain and it can be difficult to determine the best strategic direction for tourism in Skåne. By exploring a number of both certain and uncertain future scenarios, we have laid a good foundation for a successful strategy work towards 2030. Kairos Future has been a valuable support in this work and we look forward to continuing to develop this collaboration during the upcoming strategy work."

Carla Aguirre Muñoz, Development Manager / Vice President Tourism in Skåne

Kairos Future's team with experience from hospitality and related industries worked side by side with a team from Tourism in Skåne to draw a map of important changes that may affect tourism in Skåne towards 2030. With scenario analysis, even uncertain issues can be explored and conditions created for a sustainable and future-proof strategy. Through Kairos Future's AI-supported analysis tool Dcipher we could for example explore the direction of the current discussion around climate anxiety and flight shame. The collaboration platform Co:tunity facilitated the involvement of stakeholders from across the region in the process.

The result is a number of thought-provoking scenarios with possible consequences for tourism in Skåne towards 2030. This scenario analysis forms the basis for the continued strategy work towards 2030.

Subjects: Travel & Tourism

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